November 2025 labor market data is sending contradictory signals that have recruiters scratching their heads: total hires fell, but job postings increased. Meanwhile, surveys show 63% of employers planning to expand payrolls in 2026.

So what's actually happening, and what should recruiters do about it?

The Numbers: Down and Up Simultaneously

According to November 2025 data:

• Total hires: Fell to 5.3 million (down from 5.4 million in October)
• Job postings: Increased to 8.1 million (up from 7.8 million in October)
• Time-to-fill: Rose to 42 days (up from 38 days in October)
• Offer acceptance rate: Dropped to 71% (down from 74% in October)

The disconnect is clear: more jobs are being posted, but fewer people are being hired. This gap suggests companies are struggling to fill open positions, not that they're pulling back on hiring plans.

Why the Hiring Slowdown Despite More Job Postings?

Several factors explain the apparent contradiction:

1. End-of-Year Budget Freezes

Many companies hit hiring freezes in November and December as they finalize 2025 budgets and plan for 2026. Job postings increase because companies are preparing for January hiring surges, but actual hires slow down as approvals get delayed.

This is a seasonal pattern, but it's more pronounced in 2025 due to economic uncertainty causing companies to be more cautious about year-end spending.

2. Candidate Hesitation

Job seekers are also slowing down during the holiday season. Employed candidates don't want to start a new job in December and lose holiday time or year-end bonuses. Unemployed candidates are waiting until January when hiring activity traditionally picks up.

The result: more job postings, but fewer candidates actively interviewing and accepting offers.

3. Pickier Hiring Standards

The rise in time-to-fill (42 days vs. 38 days in October) and drop in offer acceptance rates suggest companies are being more selective. They're posting jobs but taking longer to make decisions and extending offers to candidates who are less likely to accept.

This pickiness may reflect companies' awareness that they'll need to live with these hires through 2026's expected hiring surge—they don't want to make rushed decisions in November that they'll regret in March.

63% Plan to Expand Payrolls in 2026

Despite November's hiring dip, a ZipRecruiter survey of hiring managers shows 63% plan to expand payrolls in 2026, up from 58% who said the same in October.

Industry breakdowns:

• Technology: 71% planning to expand (highest of any sector)
• Healthcare: 68% planning to expand
• Professional services: 64% planning to expand
• Retail: 59% planning to expand
• Manufacturing: 54% planning to expand (lowest, but still majority)

Additionally, staffing industry associations are tracking six straight weeks of increased activity, suggesting that temporary and contract hiring is picking up even as full-time hiring slows.

What Recruiters Should Actually Do

The mixed signals create a challenge: prepare for a 2026 hiring surge while navigating a November/December slowdown. Here's how to navigate this:

1. Build Pipelines Now, Hire in January

Use November and December to source candidates, build relationships, and create talent pipelines for January 2026. Don't expect to close offers in December—expect to have warm leads ready to go when budgets unlock in January.

This is the perfect time to:

• Reach out to passive candidates who aren't actively interviewing
• Build relationships with candidates who applied previously but weren't hired
• Attend industry events and conferences (like ERE and HR Tech Week) to network
• Clean up your ATS and organize candidate pipelines by role and priority

2. Get Budget Approvals Before Year-End

If 63% of employers are planning to expand in 2026, the companies that secure budget approvals in November/December will have a head start on those scrambling for approvals in January.

Work with finance and hiring managers now to:

• Document 2026 hiring needs with specific headcount by role and quarter
• Build data-driven cases for recruiting budget increases (cost-per-hire, time-to-fill, impact of unfilled roles)
• Get preliminary approvals so you're not starting from scratch in January

3. Don't Panic About November's Dip

November hiring dips are normal. The key question isn't "why are hires down this month?" but "are we positioned to capitalize on the January surge?"

If you've spent November building pipelines, securing budget approvals, and preparing for Q1 hiring, you're in good shape. If you've spent November reacting to the slowdown by cutting back on sourcing and planning, you'll be scrambling in January.

4. Pay Attention to Offer Acceptance Rates

The drop in offer acceptance rates (71% vs. 74% in October) is worth monitoring. If candidates are declining offers, ask why:

• Are salary expectations misaligned?
• Are candidates receiving counteroffers?
• Is your company's employer brand suffering?
• Are competitors offering better packages or flexibility?

Use November and December to address these issues before the January hiring surge. If you're losing candidates to compensation, now is the time to make the case for competitive pay. If you're losing candidates to employer brand, now is the time to invest in messaging and candidate experience improvements.

The Bottom Line

November 2025's hiring data is contradictory on the surface—hires down, postings up—but it makes sense in context:

• Short-term (November-December 2025): Seasonal slowdown as companies finalize budgets and candidates wait for the new year
• Medium-term (Q1 2026): Hiring surge as 63% of employers expand payrolls and pent-up demand from November/December gets released
• Long-term (full year 2026): Continued growth, particularly in technology and healthcare sectors

Recruiters who use the November/December slowdown to build pipelines, secure budgets, and address offer acceptance issues will be positioned to win in 2026. Those who react to the slowdown by pulling back will find themselves unprepared when hiring surges in January.

The data isn't contradictory—it's telling you exactly what to do: prepare now for the surge ahead.