As we wrap up 2025, I've been doing the rounds with TA leaders to see what they're expecting when the calendar flips to 2026. The big question: are we finally getting that hiring rebound everyone's been talking about, or should we prepare for more cautious, slow-burn recruiting?

Spoiler alert: the answer is "it depends," which is the most frustrating non-answer in our industry.

The Optimists vs. The Realists

According to a recent LinkedIn Talent Solutions survey, 62% of TA leaders are expecting increased hiring activity in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025. That's a pretty solid majority feeling bullish about the new year.

But here's where it gets interesting. When you dig into the why behind that optimism, it's not because companies are suddenly flush with cash or planning massive expansions. It's because Q4 2025 was so ridiculously slow that literally any uptick feels like a rebound.

The realists in the room are pointing out that "increased activity" doesn't mean "back to 2021-2022 levels." We're talking about a modest bump, mostly driven by backfill positions and roles that got frozen in late 2025 finally getting the green light. Gartner reports that 43% of companies are planning to keep headcount flat in Q1, which means we're playing musical chairs more than actually growing teams.

What's Actually Driving Q1 Hiring

The sectors showing genuine optimism? Healthcare (always), AI/tech (selectively), and manufacturing (surprisingly). Healthcare never stops hiring, so that's baseline noise. Tech is being super picky - only AI-adjacent roles and senior positions are getting the budget love.

Manufacturing is the dark horse here. Reports from SHRM indicate that reshoring efforts and infrastructure investments are creating actual new headcount, not just backfills. If you're recruiting for manufacturing roles, Q1 might actually be your time to shine.

The sectors still pumping the brakes? Finance, retail, and professional services. Budget freezes are extending into Q1 for many organizations, and the "do more with less" mantra is alive and well.

The Verdict

Look, I'm cautiously optimistic about Q1 2026, but I'm also a realist. We're not getting a boom - we're getting a gentle, slow thaw. Plan for modest activity increases, keep your candidate pipelines warm, and don't expect miracles just because the year changed.

The real rebound? That's probably a Q2 or Q3 conversation. For now, we're in the "survival and steady state" phase of recruiting.