Job Postings Drop 5% in November, But January Surge Is Coming
In 2025, hiring cooled gradually throughout the year. But when November's data dropped, the shift became unmistakable. Job postings fell 5% month-over-month, and the 2025 curve now mirrors prior years—drifting downward from early fall and following the same seasonal slope.
Based on this trajectory, vacancies are likely to keep softening through December, then rebound strongly in January as companies reopen requisitions and launch new-budget hiring. The winter dip reflects timing, not deterioration, and the bounce that follows is typically fast and decisive.
The Big Players Are Pulling Back Hard
Verizon began December with only 376 open roles. A year ago, it had 1,331—that's a 72% drop.
Amazon's situation is even more dramatic. The company's 2025 slowdown began months before its October announcement of 14,000 layoffs. By early December, active openings fell to 10,756, down 49.3% from last year. Cuts span HR, cloud computing, advertising, and several corporate functions.
These aren't just seasonal adjustments—these are strategic workforce reductions happening during a period when hiring typically slows anyway. The combination amplifies the impact.
But not everyone is contracting. Neurocrine Biosciences has moved in the opposite direction, expanding active postings from 60 a year ago to 317 in early December—more than a fivefold increase. The surge follows strong Q3 earnings and demand for medical and clinical roles in their specialty neuroscience drug development.
This Is Normal (Really)
The December slowdown is predictable. Companies pause hiring for legitimate operational reasons:
Budget cycles: Most organizations finalize next year's budgets in December. Approved positions and hiring plans get locked in for January launches.
Decision-maker availability: Executives who approve hiring decisions are on vacation. Hiring managers take time off. HR teams operate with skeleton crews. The people who need to say "yes" to moving candidates forward aren't available.
Onboarding logistics: Companies prefer January start dates when everyone's back, training resources are available, and new hires aren't walking into empty offices.
Year-end closures: Many companies completely shut down between Christmas and New Year. Recruiting during shutdown weeks is impossible.
The data proves this is cyclical, not structural. Hiring hasn't disappeared—it's delayed.
Why January Rebounds Are Predictable
New budgets activate: Approved headcount that was frozen in December becomes available January 1. Companies that delayed hiring to stay within current-year budgets immediately reopen positions when new fiscal years begin.
Backfilled departures: Employees who resigned in Q4 (but worked notice periods through December) create vacancies that companies fill in January. Year-end bonuses and vesting schedules often trigger resignation waves in late December and early January, leading to immediate replacement needs.
Strategic initiatives launch: New projects approved in annual planning cycles kick off in Q1, requiring new hires. Product launches, market expansions, and organizational changes that were planned in Q4 move into execution mode in January.
Delayed requisitions reopen: Roles that were approved but not filled before year-end get relisted. Companies that paused recruiting in December resume efforts in January with renewed urgency.
What Recruiters Should Do Right Now
Use December strategically: Most companies pause hiring during holidays, which means candidates you want aren't getting dozens of other offers. Your opportunity stands out. Serious candidates are still active—people applying in December aren't casually browsing, they're motivated to move.
Build January pipelines now: Companies that intensify recruitment efforts in December can fill critical roles with new hires who are fully onboarded and contributing by January, giving them a significant head start over competitors who restart recruiting after holidays.
Target passive candidates: As the holiday season approaches, many passive candidates reflect on the year and reevaluate their goals. Holiday vacations create additional flexibility for recruitment conversations and interviews. People are more available and more reflective during this period.
Engage recent graduates: Up to a third of college students graduate at the end of fall semester. Most recruitment firms don't specifically target December grads. With holiday break providing free time, this is the perfect window to build a candidate pool of fresh graduates.
Plan for January onboarding: Hire in December and your new team member begins in January when everyone's energized for the new year. You avoid the rush when all companies try to onboard simultaneously in January.
The Market Context: More Candidates, Fewer Jobs
June 2025 marked the first time since 2021 that the number of unemployed in the US exceeded the number of open jobs. That means in addition to seasonal patterns, recruiters are operating in a market with abundant talent availability.
Applications for seasonal retail positions jumped 27% compared to last December, even as retailers are hiring up to 40% fewer seasonal workers than last year. The supply-demand imbalance favors employers right now.
For companies hiring in December, this creates unusual opportunity: high candidate availability, low competition from other employers, and motivated applicants who want to secure roles before year-end.
What January Will Look Like
Based on historical patterns and current market dynamics, expect:
Requisition surge: Companies will reopen positions that were paused in December plus launch new roles approved in annual planning.
Increased competition for talent: All companies restart hiring simultaneously in January, making it a recruiter's busiest and most competitive month.
Faster time-to-fill pressure: Hiring managers who waited through December holidays will demand quick fills in January, creating urgency across recruiting teams.
Higher candidate selectivity: As job postings increase in January, candidates who were responsive in December become more selective when they have multiple opportunities.
The Strategic Advantage
Companies treating December as a recruiting pause are following conventional wisdom. Companies treating December as a strategic recruiting opportunity are capitalizing on reduced competition, higher candidate availability, and the ability to start January with roles already filled or pipelines already warm.
The 5% drop in November postings and continued December softening is expected and temporary. The January rebound is equally predictable based on three years of consistent data.
Smart recruiters aren't waiting for January to start sourcing. They're using December to build pipelines, engage passive candidates, and position themselves to move fast when budgets activate and requisitions reopen in January.
The slowdown is real. The opportunity is too.
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